Thursday, February 25, 2010

How it all ends: Risk Management Video 1 2 3








Notes (Video 1):
· How do you go making a decision without facing uncertainty?
· Telling you how to think
· “Manipulative”
· 1) Cant make the right choice
2) You have to chose
Answer: “Do the best you can with what you have”
· No certainty on climate change
· No matter how careful the population is, you will either overspend or under spend
· Risk Management: Used by government and industries (relieves you of the necessity of knowing things for certain, before making a decision)
· Gives oversight of the whole process
· Weigh the risks and costs and the society decides what to do
· Probability x Consequence



Part 1


Useful for climate change

At the start you can calucalte what do you expect of an action

Sense of consequences

Sense of probabilrty

Use expected value to find an idea what one can expect in the climate change.

Ist a prediction, not conjecture. Ist something that might happen. All about the probabilty, the highest expected value...

Dont only believe what people say/what one read. Take a step back and use the information to assess by oneself.

Given uncertainty, what is probably the most credible source?

(spectrum) based on 2 factors

Does the source know wat they are doing?

Are they are bias?

Connection to Copenhaguen:




Part 3

Looking at profesional organizationa. AAAS, who are not bias and said that climate change is a major issue.

American Association for the Advancement of Science

National Academy of Sciences


Publishers of Science, peer editing.

It is caused by humans, extreme weather etc. „The time to conrtol emissions is now“

NAS second professional scientist organization with G8 statement

Late action will incur greater cost. A bid to G8 leaders.

Firms, who have very high CO2 emissions actually said that they should make a law on CO2 emissions.

Contradiction in bias, because these companies sold their products with wrong advertisement campaigns. Since everyone knows about the problem now, the companies are going „greener“.


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